It’s hard to overemphasize this story yesterday from Axios, a reliable Democrat organ. For months, we’ve been hearing that Joe Biden has a “digital” campaign that is emphasizing vote by mail (VBM). The reason for the pivot? According to Axios, “threats of U.S. Postal Service delays, Team Trump litigation and higher ballot rejection rates become clearer, many are pivoting to promote more in-person voting as well.”
Nice reasons. All of them possibly contributory. But for the most part, this is a lie. Do you want to know what is really causing the panic? Two words: North Carolina.
As the VBM from early voting in North Carolina are coming in (according to joeisdone.githu.io), it is already clear that Democrats were “expecting” 60% VBM “turnout,” but so far are looking at a shocking 40% VBM—and this is before ballots are tossed out or disqualified. On the other hand, Republicans were expected to come in at an 18% rate—but are actually slightly over-performing at about a 20% rate. In other words, in their first test of VBM, the Democrats saw a disaster on the horizon.
It’s really worse than that. Joe Biden, by all public accounts, was way, way behind the curve in the ground game from the beginning. He didn’t have an office in Minnesota until August. Biden field workers are way understaffed and under-supplied. Then they have a candidate who has put a “lid” on his public appearances at 9:00 in the morning! Some speculate this is because he is being briefed relentlessly for the debate—yet talk show host Rush Limbaugh insists Biden will “suddenly” find one of his staffers tested positive with COVID and have to quarantine himself. If not before the first debate, certainly thereafter.
Another key sign that not only is the Democrat strategy of mail-in voting failing badly in the presidential race, but it is also affecting the House races, is the fact that Speaker Nancy Pelosi abruptly pulled the plug on further impeachment talk, saying Trump isn’t “worth the trouble”. Then, although I don’t do polls, there has clearly been a shift. Rasmussen, for the first time, has Trump leading nationally, and a slew of state polls had good news for Trump in Arizona, Texas, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Michigan, and even New Mexico.
The final factor about to weigh in on the Democrats’ chances are the upcoming Senate hearings for President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee. While some have suggested the Republicans don’t need to hold hearings (true), they won’t break tradition so as to appease the “moderates” who will nevertheless be voting for Trump’s choice. 
In a perverse way, however, the hearings will likely help the GOP in the general election. The Democrats, you see, “kain’t hep themselves” (to paraphrase former Texas governor Ann Richards when referring to George H. W. Bush). They will go dirty; they will be over the top. And, just like the Brett Kavanaugh hearings (that elected four Republicans to Democrats senate seats) and the 2002 “Wellstone Memorial” (where, while supposedly mourning Senator Paul Wellstone of Minnesota, who died in an airplane crash, displayed their utter lack of humanity by booing Republicans who attended to pay their condolences). Episodes such as these are not lost on voters.
Taken together, the Senate and House races probably will be affected. If the Democrats’ strategy—after months of telling their voters to vote by mail—is to suddenly demand they show up in person, when they risk the China Virus; if it is to demean and tar an upstanding female Court nominee, and it if is to rely on completely unreliable polls while ignoring the sea change of registration at their feet . . . well, what happens next is entirely on them.
Larry Schweikart is the co-author, along with Michael Allen, of the New York Times #1 bestseller, A Patriot’s History of the United States, is the author of Reagan: The American President, and is the founder of Wild World of History, a history curriculum website with full US and World History courses for grades 9-12 that include teachers’ guide, student workbooks, tests, maps/graphs, and video lessons to accompany every unit (www.wildworldofhistory.com).
