According to the primo pollster, Rich Baris, the mid-terms are shaping up to favor Republicans. Despite the GOP's apparent insistence on tanking certain candidates at the expense of so many R voters, Biden's policies are almost ensuring a red wave. The House of Representatives may pick up enough seats to assume a majority. According to his most recent polling, the Senate may also pick up two seats.
When push comes to shove, Americans elect conservatives when the economy tanks. According to both Baris and Barnes, key battleground states are all trending Republican. Most importantly, as Robert Barnes stated on What Are the Odds on Tuesday, local races are winning because of national issues like the economy and the border. 50% of the electorate chose an economic issue when asked what concerns them most.
Baris/Most Important issues by party
Democrats are already hurting going into the mid-terms because of pandemic lockdown policies. "Democratic statism has been on full display for two years, arguably longer than that because of the lockdown politics in these democratic cities, counties, and states. They're also seeing it with democratic cities. I mean, everybody can turn on and see live who's raiding the local drug store now," said Barnes. Working class whites, Hispanics, and even Asians are opting for Republicans because of the economy and the border. Blacks are not as much of a factor because their turnout during mid-terms is traditionally low. Middle-class whites are angry over crime and woke schools. It is challenging to find voters who like the idea of their 6-year-olds being indoctrinated by trans-gender library hours and sexualized curricula.
Barnes and Baris/What Are The Odds
Barnes believes that Republicans can win in the House and may break 250 seats. Baris agreed that they would "crush the 247 roof." Both say that "voter registration, primary participation, primary vote share, and political affiliation" are the critical factors in predicting a win—all are trending in favor of Republicans, especially in key states. Barnes stated:
"Working class whites continue to increasingly shift their partisan affiliation, particularly ancestrally. Democratic working-class white groups are shifting into Republican registration. There is a continued shift amongst Latinos, amongst Mexican Americans, Puerto Ricans, Venezuelans, [and] Cubans. This group continues to trend massively Republican. By like 20 to 30 points kind of shift. And that's what's all of a sudden making Texas no longer competitive from a democratic perspective."
The House/Sept. 27
Barnes also says while Arizona and Nevada used to trend Democratic, they are now shifting Republican "because of the Mexican American vote." He says they will probably still remain net democratic, however. The current Attorney General Adam Laxalt in Nevada has been strong "from day one," however. He is the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate.
Baris' Public Polling Project indicates that Laxalt has led with "the first five issues." The issues are the cost of living, economy, abortion, immigration, and election integrity. Abortion is quickly receding into the background as an issue for most voters because of Biden's ruinous policies.
Baris/CD Media Big Data Poll
One of the more telling graphics Baris presented relates to Senate spending. During the summer, Democrats were full speed ahead in their spending for candidates. Republicans, however, waited until after Labor Day to fund ads for Senatorial candidates, with the exception of Arizona. Baris says that is because McConnell and the establishment GOP are not fond of Lake and Masters.
Baris believes Republicans can also win the Senate. He is currently hypothesizing a net gain of two seats in the Senate. New Hampshire is a wild card and a "sleeper," but Baris says even that state could pull out a win. He also said incumbent Senator Ron Johnson will almost certainly win in Wisconsin. Johnson has been a strong advocate of vaccine-injured individuals and a courageous voice during the pandemic when most politicians ran the other way.
Baris commented on the Mastriano gubernatorial race in Pennsylvania. He stated the GOP has all but abandoned him there because they do not want Mastriano in place for a Trump run in 2024. Mastriano has been relegated to funding his campaign through grassroots almost exclusively. Mastriano faces some stiff headwinds with Shapiro as his opponent. However, inner-city crime and election integrity issues in P.A. are prominent in voters' minds.
Shapiro's counterpunch is to call out Mastriano's associations with "white supremacists and extremists" despite no evidence of truth in his statement unless you are talking about Trump followers.
Voter registration numbers for Republicans in key battleground states are off the chain. Key races in the states are for Gubernatorial and Senatorial seats. Baris is unequivocal in his belief that Florida will be bright red in November. The voter registration numbers there are astounding. Pennsylvania and North Carolina are running closely behind. Baris says Budd, N.C.'s Republican gubernatorial candidate, is now plus 5 in North Carolina. According to Baris, North Carolina has not been polled competently in 10 years. Maryland is another state where a strong America First candidate can win. Baris remarked the state "is used to a Republican governor" with the more moderate Hogan and Cox could pull it off. This is a year where the winds are blowing fairly for a candidate like Cox. He has a very strong Lt. Governor running mate in Gordana Schifanelli.
Voter Registration Numbers/Baris/Key States Mid-Terms
Baris has a dim view of most other pollsters. He says outlets like the Washington Post purposely gear their polls to "depress" Republican voters. For example, the Post highlighted Republican candidates who will cause trouble for GOP leadership (McConnell). The establishment GOP types seem more interested in votes than seats and are working to ensure populist candidates do not win. Earlier in the summer, Baris lamented the GOP's strategy. Still, he seems to think that the issues facing Americans are now dire enough to counteract the lunacy of the establishment, which repeatedly shoots themselves (and Republican voters) in the foot to elect compliant candidates. Kevin McCarthy has been a key player in the effort to sabotage candidates like the fire-brand Madison Cawthorn, who lost his House seat in the N.C. primary.
McCarthy and others like him in the party deny they are sabotaging MAGA candidates. The Washington Post writes, "McCarthy allies argue that their interventions in GOP primaries have little to do with political ideology, but rather focus on elevating politicians who will work with the rest of the Republican caucus or who have the best chance of winning their district. The Bakersfield, Calif., Republican has recently embraced some of the most far-right members of his caucus, including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), whose committee assignments he plans to restore if Republicans win the House."