Weeks ago, I discussed the concept that the Left and Right in America were watching one screen but seeing two movies. Case in point: Reuters blares “ With time running out, Trump to launch attacks on Biden’s family at debate” to “steady a campaign that is struggling.” Struggling?” Really? Only in the minds of the Hoax Pollsters and Hoax News media. Behind such now-expected stories, however, are little inklings that even the Hoax News Left knows the narrative they have been feeding Americans for months is a lie.
Last night, on Twitter, Jack Posobiec overheard a well-known correspondent from a leading anti-Trump network glumly observe, “It’s going to be a long 2nd term.” (Yeah, I know: “Come on, Schweikart, an unnamed source?” Why not? Hoax News does it with every story). But the Washington Post was publicly starting to entertain the possibility that Trump would win, arguing “If Joe Biden Loses, It Probably Won’t Be Because of An Increase in GOP Voter Registration.” Oh nooooo. It could never be because people actually identified more with Republicans—that must be a myth. In fact, those of you who have followed this column know that it is precisely this national landslide of Republican registration gains that are propelling Trump to victory, and that in Florida, North Carolina, even New Mexico (where so far Republican turnout is nearly on a par with Democrats who outnumber them by 90,000) these increased registrations are offsetting the Vote By Mail wave that Democrat strategists turned out.
Now we have a “statistical tie” in Minnesota senate polling between Tina Smith and Jason Lewis. Wait, what? John James has surged ahead in Michigan, pollster Richard Baris tells me that Martha McSally is tied in Arizona, and now a tied race in Minnesota—but these were all races in which Democrats were expected to cruise to victory while retaking the Senate. Instead it now appears the Democrats will be fortunate not to see the Republicans expand their margins after November 3. Yes, there are other reasons for Lewis and James, especially doing well. James was a novice first time out and simply wasn’t ready to run for the U.S. Senate. But he studied and learned. Lewis is a pro in Minnesota politics who sensed that the radicals had terrified the Suburban Karen's there.
Then there is Joe Biden himself. His preferred strategy would be to let Trump run against the media and hide in his basement. Early on, Trump forced him out, but he wished he could have dodged the debates entirely. After last night’s debate, you know why. Occasionally looking befuddled, checking his watch, Biden had one of those Gerald Ford “Poland-is-independent” moments when he promised a “transition from the oil industry” and Trump quickly exposed him. The shock waves were felt in every oil-producing state, with Xochiti Torres Small, an endangered House Democrat from New Mexico’s second district, hastily blasting out a tweet that said “I disagree with VP Biden’s statement tonight. Energy is part of the backbone of New Mexico’s economy,” and “We need to work together to promote responsible energy, . . . not demonize a single industry.” Well, Xochiti, you’re about a year too late. The Green New Deal is in your national platform, and this is only one of many such statements that Biden has made over the past six months in which he has promised to kill fracking and other petroleum-based businesses. Biden had apparently prepped so much for questions on his son Hunter that he failed to sufficiently prepare lies about his energy position.
While analysts concluded the race was over after the Vote by Mail (VBM) numbers heavily favored Democrats, few bothered to see how those numbers stacked up against 2016 levels if adjusted for increased (or decreased) populations. In fact, in both North Carolina and Florida, Democrats were running substantially behind their numbers. After building up a 500,000 lead in VBM in Florida, for example, Republicans stormed back yesterday with a 50,000-vote-day and this morning were already holding a 142,000 lead in In-Person Early Voting. With six full days of this left, and with the Democrats’ VBM numbers now plunging, it’s possible Rs will reach their own “magic number” of 55% of Democrat early vote/VBM by election day at 294,000. Indeed, as of this morning, it looks as though they will hit 300,000. Likewise, in North Carolina, Democrats were under-performing, and Republicans were over-performing their targets. Even in New Mexico, so far in early voting Republicans were right on the heels of Democrats with only a 2% deficit.
Throughout the summer, Democrats have completely ignored Trump’s black and Hispanic approval on the one hand, and the pending missing student vote on the other. Now both are surfacing. But with black and Hispanic votes, they don’t show up in most of these registration/early vote statistics because the focus is on party. Most older blacks or Hispanics who will be voting for Trump will still be Democrats.
Now, as Trump prepares for the last 11 days, he has a blockbuster economic report coming out the weekend before the election. Most analysts think the 3rd Quarter economic growth will be in the range of 35%. And already U.S. existing home sales have far exceeded expectations.
This all points to a very unpleasant election day for Democrats.
Larry Schweikart is the co-author with Michael Allen of the New York Times #1 bestseller, A Patriot’s History of the United States, author of Reagan: The American President, and founder of the Wild World of History history curriculum website including full US and World History courses that contain teacher’s guides, student workbooks, tests/answer keys, maps/images/graphs, and video lessons for every unit (www.wildworldofhistory.com).